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Joe Strauss Live

The Cardinals beat writer goes one-on-one with readers from baseball's winter meetings in Orlando.
Wednesday, December 8, 2010 01:00 PM CST

comments & answers

Joe Strauss: Sorry for the brief delay. Just concluded a managers' luncheon followed by a group interrogation of TLR, who mused on Brendan Ryan, Albert, Berkman, etc. Perhaps we'll touch on several of those topics in the next hour. Since we spoke yesterday, the Baltimore Orioles have backed out of talks for Tampa Bay Rays shortstop Jason Bartlett, widening the market for Ryan. The Orioles may have interest in J.J. Hardy but Ryan's name has apparently been mentioned in the Warehouse. A mix of B. Ryan and Buck Showalter would be an interesting one. The SD Padres remain in the market for a SS, as do the Pittsburgh Pirates. Still have the sense that John Mozeliak leaves here without Brendan on the roster. But, for now, that's just a hunch. Once again we confront a formidable wave of questions. Time's wasting. Let's catch the perfect wave.

CoOrS iS bEtTeR: Let's say Albert and the FO can't work out a contract. Mo better be ready to wheel n deal and fill out the roster with better/proven players and spend that $30 mill on some top shelf players instead of the scrap heap approach of the past. Agree? Thanks!
Joe Strauss: Doubtless many of you read today's P-D article in which chairman Bill DeWitt Jr. offered some broad strokes about the club's approach with El Hombre. Jumping to conclusions based on that interview would be dangerous, even foolish. DeWitt recognizes the fan base interst in these talks while remaining insistent that no blow-by-blow be offered during actual talks. This was a primer, an honest one, but to extrapolate the outcome of talks based on it simply doesn't make sense. I've insisted since last year that these talks would be difficult and possibly contentious. That's not to paint either side as villainous or greedy. It's acknowledging the reality of high-stakes poker involving the game's best player. Neither side knows what the other wants. Creativity will be required. To say DeWitt enters talks prepared to let Pujols walk is presumptuous. Of course, stating publicly that the club will make Pujols the game's highest-paid player would also be a poor tactic with talks approaching. This doubtless will become a matter of the heart of a large portion of the team's fan base. It remains a matter of serious thought for both Albert's representation and the club.

David: Bernie in his recent blog entry hit on all of my thoughts as to why Holliday should stay in left and Berkman should play right. Why put someone in right who's never played there for someone who is a minus defender anywhere in the outfield anyway and who actually has experience in right? So are the Cardinals really considering moving Holliday, or is their wishy-washy-ness just because they haven't put much thought into any of this?
Joe Strauss: TLR just stated that he will go to Florida projecting Holliday in left and Berkman in right. The alignment is subject to change. La Russa sounded much more clear on the topic today than he did prior to a Sunday night meeting with Mozeliak.

David: In your opinion, is Theriot's bat worth taking away Ryan's glove? And what do the Cardinals see in Schumaker to keep him at second (besides contract/inability to be traded)? Is he still improving there?
Joe Strauss: I'll answer it this way: A number of rival scouts have described Theriot as a better defender than David Eckstein circa 2006. The Cardinals intend to turn Jose Oquendo loose on Theriot, believing that he is still able to take another step defensively. If Schumaker doesn't play second base he becomes a $2.7 million bit player. There are few remaining at-bats with Berkman, Holliday and Rasmus in the outfield. Schumaker has value, despite what many believe after his challenging 2010. Two years ago the ChatMeister was vilified for questioning the wisdom of converting Schu' to second base. Now many who gulped the Kool-Aid then want Schumaker's head on a pike. Just because Schu' starts the season at 2B doesn't mean he plays there every day the entire season. Daniel Descalso will be worth watching this spring. So will Tyler Greene, though I have a difficult time seeing him as a right-side infielder. If Schumaker hits, my sense is that many complaints will evaporate. If he doesn't, they'll be amplified. The Cardinals are clearly throwing in with offense in 2011.

Oscar Mayer: Joe,
Talk is that when the time comes Albert is going to get something north of $30 million per year. That is a bit less than $200k per game and also about $50k per at bat even for those that aren't run out.
I make decent money but I can't budget to take the family to more than a couple of games a year.
Do you see any fan backlash against the huge salaries and do you see a scenario where baseball prices itself into irrelevance?
Always enjoy your work. Thanks....
Joe Strauss: The Cardinals drew 3.3M last season. They operate as a civic centerpiece moreso than a professional sports franchise. I don't see that dynamic changing anytime soon, especially if Pujols remains with the club.

Corey: He is known by many names - Chatmeister, El Diablo... Joe -

I read Burwell's column today and was interested in your take on his comment about the "filthy rich vs. the rich". And how do you feel about my conspiracy theory that the Cardinals signed Holliday to a long-term deal because they want him to become the franchise player when Albert gives the proverbial middle-finger to a franchise that has the money, just doesn't want to spend it (Can you tell I'm getting impatient?).
Anyway, a couple other questions - the Cardinals start the season with Franklin as their closer. Who do you see as the closer by the end of the season?
Do you expect Colby to really step up his defensive game this season? I thought he was okay last season but my father says there are a lot more balls that he needs to get to out there and he needs to truly take control.
Berkman... Saw your take that they may be using Jay as a defensive replacement in late innings, does that make much sense since it may also be important to have his bat in the late innings?

Enough already - keep up the great work. Taking time to talk with us hyper-ventilating, arm-chair GM, lunatics is much appreciated.
Joe Strauss: My job is to report on developments. It's a little early for me as a beat hack to anticipate tactics and outcomes since the sides may still be 3-4 weeks away from formal negotiations. Others may have better insight.
As for on-field stuff:
Franklin finishes the season as closer if healthy.
I expect Raz' entire game to improve this season, but it's a necessity that his defense improve. It's not an option.
Berkman likely comes out if the Cardinals lead. It remains to be seen what his exposure will be against LHP. The manager just insisted it will be frequent.

Oscar Mayer: Joe,
I've been reading comments and posts some praising the improvement to the offense and some lamenting what may be the worst defensive Cardinal team on record.
Do you tink this team will score enough additional runs to balance the added number of runs allowed? With the pitching locked up and the starting lineup as it stands do you see an improvement over last year's record (I see this as an 83 win team)? What impact would you see on the team ERA form this shift away from defense?
Thanks for sharing the insight and wisdom.
OM
Joe Strauss: As stated last year, integrity of the starting lineup is critical. If Berkman and Freese are healthy and productive enough to remain everyday players, I believe this team in a strong position to contend assuming the same level of pitching. Don't forget, sports fans, the Cardinals' defense ranged from mediocre to brutal for much of last season.

doug: Hey Joe,
Does 225 million over 8 years, front end loaded get Alber to sign ?
Or does the Cards FO need to turn this into a "lifetime" deal ?
Joe Strauss: Apparently you don't hold a regular subscription to Joe Strauss Live!!! It's been the contention here since last year that length of contract will become the larger obstacle. The Cardinals may be willing to make Albert the game's highest-paid player. For how long is the $30 million question.

Brian Daugherty: Joe-
Is it conceivable; that Berkman is here as a insurance policy, just in case a deal cannot be reached with Albert? As he could easily then man up 1B? I mean, if the cardinals FO find themselves financially handcuffed; he would almost certainly have to be traded as earlier as mid-season; right? For a obscene trade package of course!
Joe Strauss: Albert can veto any trade... ANY trade. To assume a move given some sort of contractual impasse is coloring outside the lines. As part of Tuesday's interview BDJ said he coudl not envision a trade of Pujols under any circumstance.

I. Noah Tall: Hello Joe Strauss from the Land of the Mouse,

I'm not encouraged by what I've read so far about the likelihood of signing Alberto HR5 to a new deal. What would you say are the odds that Lance Berkman is the opening day first baseman in 2012?

Bring some warm weather when you come home, please.
Joe Strauss: My information is that Berkman is signed for one year. Making any projections about Berkman beyond 2011 is a waste of time given that he is coming off the least productive season of his career after requiring left knee surgery. Slow down.

Smitty: Hey Joe:

I ask a question yesterday but did not see an answer so here goes again.
My favorite Cardinal anouncer is Rick Horton. The cardinals offered contracts to three instead of two anouncers since they are going to be showing more games on Fox Midwest and Rick is ask to join the rotation.
Have you heard if Mr Horton has accepted the offer yet or what do you thing is our chances of keeping him in St Louis??

I appreciate your wisdom and insight news items we can get here from you each week while the Cardinals are off for the winter.
Joe Strauss: I have not heard an official decision regarding Horton's future at FSM. I know the Washington Nationals have had longstanding interest in him as a potential partner for Bob Carpenter. Your question may be better directed to Dan "Hail" Caesar. To my knowledge, Ricky, Danny Mac and the Agitated Hungarian are still projected as a revolving three-man crew.

Chuck Long Island: The days of the week are marked by JSL Live!!! Lo and behold I thought yesterday was Wednesday. Two Tsunamis in one week. What more can I ask for? Was wondering, do you know the money Berkman turned down with Oakland to sign with STL? Thanks!
Joe Strauss: Two years with a $6-$7 million AAV.

Loco Motives: Are the Cardinals really content with having David Freese as its top option at 3B? I would assume that Mo and Co. would/are going to invest in a veteran to at least be the backup at 3B, but given the team's recent history of questionable acquisitions at 3B (since Mo took over as GM)and Mo's stance that the lineup is set I fear that the team is going to have a repeat of the 2010 season at the hot corner. Once the season begins it seems as if teams are not too willing to part with their 3B via trade, so a FA pickup or preseason swap would appear to be one of the team's next moves for 2011. Thoughts?
Joe Strauss: I still detect wiggle room there. TLR just noted that Allen Craig might benefit from more exposure at Triple-A if he doesn't project as at least a semi-regular. As is, TLR said Craig will receive the majority of his spring training exposure at 3B rather than RF. I don't think the matter is written in pen.

Freddie: Hey Joe,
After looking at their revenue and their payroll, don't you think the Cards can afford to pay Pujols $25-30 mill/year? And how much is Pujols involved in the talks as he mentioned, he's not looking to be the highest paid; just wants the Cards to be competitive. Thanks.
Joe Strauss: As negotiations approach, I would be reluctant to speak for either side. It's incredibly naive, however, to expect the game's best player to settle for a below-market figure.

nickn: In reading your write up today on the Pujols matter, it makes me think that this is "IT" in terms of how Bill DeWitt and John Mozeliak will ulitmately be viewed by historians of the sport. Signing or not signing Albert will forever link them to success or failure. Even though the team and its fan base will have no choice but to move on with or without Pujols, there does not come talents that come along like this more than a hand full or so times in a lifetime. Would you agree that the ramifications of Pujols re-signing or not here will essentially seal their own fates in the eyes of the greater baseball community? It just seems like to be a fierce competitor in professional sports like real life you need to know that cost of winning has to include exceptions to when you may not be able to be rationale and fiscally responsible. Do you agree this is the time for ownership to take that once in a lifetime risk even if the numbers on paper can not support the decision?
Joe Strauss: It's not my money. But you should be aware that the Pujols' talks will have significant implications for the entire industry, not just the local franchise. Comparisions to the Jeter talks are misguided. Jeter is entering the twilight of his career and took a pay cut. Pujols is at a career plateau and will more than double the AAV of his previous deal (signed prior to him entering arbitration). This is not CandyLand. It's adult swim. Counting on sentiment prevailing is extremely naive.

scott: Joe, It looks like Dewitt and Co. are starting their posturing about payroll limitations. In your opinion can the Cards afford to pay AP $25-30 million a year and still field a team that can compete for a World Series title? Thanks.
Joe Strauss: That's the core question. My suspicion is that an extension would immediately force hard decisions regarding the rotation, specifically Chris Carpenter's option for 2012. The difference in Pujols' current salary and $30 million roughly equates to Carpenter's take.

Ron: Thanks for sharing your knowledge. Is it possiable that in addition to all the reported positives to signing Berkman that his presence gives a little leverage in dealing with Pujols? And that they were able to keep him away from the Cubs? Also is Mo's statements that Theriot is our shortstop a way of convincing any potential trade partners that were not " desperate " to trade for really good shortstop, thus helping in negotiations wlth other clubs?
Joe Strauss: I don't get the "Puma as leverage" conspiracy. Mo' has remained insistent in recent days that Theriot is the starting shortstop. I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Mark: Hey Joe,

During the process of getting a new stadium, the fans & city were told that additional revenue was needed in order to stay competitive. A quick Google search shows that payroll has gone from $101M in '08 to $78M in '09 to $94M last year. The $94M is behind such revenue heavy-weights like the Twins & Mariners, and is essentially the same as the Astros. I understand ownership is (partially) paying for the stadium, but attendance has been strong every year, albeit at reduced per ticket revenue figures. Why doesn't someone call out DeWitt on this? What kind of reason/excuse would he give? They've been underpaying Albert for the last 5 years and now he wants to go cheap? Mark Cuban once said there are two kinds of owners: ones that want to win and ones that want to make money. We'll see how all this pans out with Albert but I think we trending towards the latter.
Joe Strauss: The club maintains that promise was made when public financing was considered a strong possibility. The club never fully articulated that self-financing the majority of a $365 million facility would affect payroll. But that has become reality.

Scott: When looking at the Pujol’s contract negotiations, what other teams can he use as leverage for his “A-Rod” type deal? The Red Sox have Adrian Gonzalez and the Yankees have Mark Teixeira. The Tigers have Miguel Cabrera and there are mentions that the Mets like Ike Davis and the Angels like Kendry Morales, what other teams have enough money to throw $30M for the 1B?
Joe Strauss: Angels, Cubs (maybe), Mets. Did I mention the Angels?

samistan: Hi Joe-Do the Cards have a Curtis Granderson type player in the system who could come up & begin making an impact as a lead-off man? Don't you think that, without this type of lead-off man & #2 hitter, won't the team's offense continue to sputter? And won't Berkman's knees preclude him from hitting #2, not being able to go "first to third" on a hit, etc.?
Team mgmt. doesn't seem to be addressing this issue very well. Thanks.
Joe Strauss: The best leadoff prospect that comes to mind is Adron Chambers, who is expected to open the season at Triple-A Memphis. He may ultimately be the player who forces Matt Holliday to move from left field to right. (There I go again, hyping prospects.) Chambers does not possess Granderson's power but he could become a dynamic base-stealing threat.

Maggie's Dad: Would the Cardinals have any interest at all in Benjie Molina?
Joe Strauss: He is on their list of possibilities. However, B. Molina has sent mixed signals about his desire to play next season. The situation may clarify shortly.

P: Dear Guru of Chat:

I don't mean to go Oliver Stone here, but... What are the latest health reports on Adam Wainwright? I've grown distrusting of the Cardinals' medical diagnoses concerning players. The injury that shut him down for his last start seemed like a Tommy John situation waiting to happen. Is this going to be another come to spring training, shut him down until May and then surgery in June scenario? Toss in the willingness to actually resign Westbrook and I'm looking for DeWitt near the grassy knoll and Mozeliak in the book suppository...
Joe Strauss: Waino' underwent an MRI shortly before the Cy Young Award was announced. The MRI, according to the club, was "clean." Waino' has had some previous elbow concerns, a factor in his enthusiasm for giving away his arbitration years and potentially delaying free agency by two years. However, JSL!!! has heard nothing lately to send up a red flag.

Rev. Jimmy: if the Padres want Brendan Ryan, then let them have him. Give us Luddy back!!!!
Joe Strauss: Ludwick may be dealt soon, but it won't be to St. Louis.

Eric: For a pitcher to get the save, the game has to be within 3 runs. What if the closer comes in to the game in the 9th inning with a runner on base and a 4 run lead? Does the run have to score in order for him to get the save?
Joe Strauss: No save situation.

Grant Martin: Joe,

Love the chats. They are really informative. My question to you is more about the state of baseball in general. Do you think franchises can continue to pay players such huge long term contracts? In my opinion there would eventually have to be a ceiling on player's salaries or a lot of clubs will not be able to compete. Do you think baseball can continue to operate like this or will changes need to be made?

I heard an interesting point on the radio stating franchises and in turn fans are paying for inflated salaries which were all caused by the “Steroid Era”. Thanks.
Joe Strauss: Teams are making money. When they stop making money, salaries will correct. Simple economics. The numbers leaked last summer regarding several franchises proved very embarrassing to MLB. The squirreling of revenue-sharing money by some "small-market" franchises is borderline scandalous, especially given the public pleas of poverty.

hewie2: Dear SuperJoe,
Thanks for this session, only 113 days before Opening Day.
1) Why the interest in 40-year-old Greg Zaun?
2) I noticed Junior Gould wrote that Ryan Theriot is "two years removed from hitting .284." Why doesn't anyone notice that Brendan Ryan is two years removed from hitting .292? Geez, the guy had one bad year at the plate, he wants to be a Cardinal, and he's statistically (and actually) the best fielding shortstop in the league. Even Musial hit .255 one year, but he wasn't traded. Thanks!
Joe Strauss: Wait a minute: You just compared Ryan with Musial. I'm sorry you're on JSL!!! probation for lack of mental control.

Dave: Hey Joe. Just how bad was the atmosphere in the Cards' locker room last year? It seemed to be a popular topic during the season, but I can't recall the last time a team went out of its way to cite character as a main reason for signing multiple free agents (Berkman, Theriot). Any insight? Thanks.
Joe Strauss: I wrote about it several times in this forum and was later taken to task by those charging the ChatMeister with muck-raking. Now the GM voices his concerns and everyone wants to hear more. You'll have to buy the book.

pobrien3: Why are the Cardinals so optimistic about Theriot's abilities. According
to LA Times writers, Dodger staff felt strongly that Theriot defensive abilities were such that he could not play shortstop. They felt at best he was a marginal second baseman and probably a utility player. There was some talk that he was on a downslide in hitting ability. On what did the Cardinals base there optimistic assessment of this player?
Joe Strauss: Of course, the Dodgers had the luxury of Rafael Furcal at short. The Cardinals reflexively compare Theriot to David Eckstein. I see some legitimacy there.

Wilshyre: Joe,

The Cards organization has known for long enough now that Pujols was heading towards free agency and he was going to command a top dollar contract, so it would seem ridiculous to me that the owners and GM haven't met already and talked terms of the deal amongst themselves. Clearly they will do all the negotiating they can to get him for a little as possible, its sort of their job, but realistically they have to think logically and set a high limit, by that I mean a length and dollar amount that they will need not exceed, that if all else fails and what not, they offer this top dollar and its take it or leave it.

My questions, do you think this is the case?
And, what backlash would you expect if the Cards do not extend Pujols?
Joe Strauss: I believe the Cardinals are aware of public backlash against their failure to retain Pujols. But the club goes "radio silent" at its own risk regarding negotiations should it not retain Pujols. It's their money and their negotiations. This season should be very interesting if Pujols is not signed prior to spring training. Very interesting.

Bud: Hey Joe Im stuck and need your insight on the Pujols contract. I am happy he is a Cardinal and I'd like to see him in a Cardinal uniform for life. However I can't get my head around the amount of money the Cardinals will have to pay to keep him. When I see the players we could land for the money he will demand I keep thinking what is better for the team and us fans. I want to believe that Albert is not the greedy type but is he? How much is enough for these players? They are just Baseball players playing a game. Help me get a better focus on what is actually going down Thanks
Joe Strauss: The word "Greed" gets thrown around like bean bags. Which is worse: For a business to maximize profits or for an employee to leverage his talent for maximum worth. Don't know about you, but I'd like to be in either position. "Greed" is a rather subjective term. As a reporter, it's probably best to retain an objective position on this matter while others delve into motive.

dmandres: Given that Lance Bergman has bad injuies to his knees and coming off his worst year, do you think he can contribute and play 140 to 150 games in 2011?
Joe Strauss: I find those numbers optimistic. I do believe the club projects Berkman as at least a 140-game presence. It's an important bet.

Purple 64: Thanks for taking questions. I like the Berkman add since the Cards scored 3 runs or less 64 times in 2010. I asked this yesterday, but got it in too late. I really don't understand the need to run Ryan out of town like Rolen and Ludwick. With the weaker defense for next year why wouldn't the team and pitchers want one of the top defensive SS in the NL as at least a late game replacement? I am old enough that I watched Dal Maxvill's entire career. His career BA was .217 and OBP of .293 including a BA of .227 for the World Champs of 1967. Gibby always wanted Maxie on the field and given Ozzie's comments do MO and TLR really know more about SS than the Wizard? I would love to see them tell Gibby to settle for a lesser defensive SS. Do you think a year from today we will still be looking for our first playoff win since MO took over?
Joe Strauss: You're not comparing the game as played in 1967 to 2011, are you? Please say you're not. Pitching was such an overwhelming force in the mid-60's that the mound was lowered. Today's game revolves around power (though maybe to a lesser extent than from the so-called Steroid Era.) The Cardinals project as one of the NL Central's top two teams. They've averaged 88.5 wins the last two seasons and return a solid pitching staff. They're not the best team in the league. They rate a chance if healthy, much as I asserted last year. Yes, depth issues remain.

Steve from Ramsey: Joe,
What would it take for the Cardinals to give up on Lohse? If his first two months are anything like his last two years, do you see the Cardinals turning to Lance Lynn?
Joe Strauss: Lohse is signed through 2012. I don't see the Cardinals "giving up" on him beforehand.

Dan: Joe, Mozeliak met with Pujols' agent on Monday, but now I'm reading articles that the club might already be gearing up for a future without him. As of today, are the chances of him resigning here trending up or down? Thanks!
Joe Strauss: You should contact those that wrote the club may be gearing up for life without him.

Kevin: Joe,
Any interest in Arthur Rhodes?
Thanks,
Kevin
Joe Strauss: I thought the A-Train a strong fit, but the Cardinals have spent their allotment for LH relief.

Andy: Hi Joe,

Thanks, as always, for doing these chats. I read somewhere that Mo has stated "radio silence" on any further Albert negotiations. You mentioned some time ago that the odds were 30-40% on his resigning. Do you feel those odds have increased or decreased at this point?

Thanks again.
Joe Strauss: I'll stand by that projection.

nickn: It seems like the signing of a free agent to back up Molina in imminent. Who do you figure are Plan A and B?
Joe Strauss: Zaun, B. Molina and Gerald Laird are available. Laird is rated low as an offensive player. Zaun is coming off shoulder surgery. The Cardinals have budgeted about $1M for the role.

LordBaden: Chatmeister, you're the grooviest.

What do you think of the Pena Cubs deal. I like it for both parties, as there aren't enough lucrative yet short term deals. Makes the upside potentially very high for both parties.
Joe Strauss: Classic "pillow contract." Cubs answer a need for one year. Pena gets a chance to rehab his value. He also comes off the books when Pujols and Fielder potentially reach free agency.

Leecard: Joe,

I saw again today that Pittsburgh is looking to trade Ryan Doumit and today it said they were willing to eat salary on the deal. They are also interested in Ryan. Is that a fit? Why does Pittsburgh want to get rid of him so badly? Is his defense as a catcher ok? Would the Cards consider him? He would definitely be a better hitting back up catcher than the Cards have had in a very long time.

Lee
Joe Strauss: Doumit fits the profile of an offensive factor who labors defensively. The Pirates are seeking a SS. However, the Cardinals indicated they are looking for more than a backup in return for Ryan and envision a free agent signing as more likely than a trade.

Joe Strauss: I've got to run folks. Meeting with club officials. Thanks for participating. Hope to return next Wednesday.