And then there were five. Sorry I didn’t get this up yesterday — I spent a whole lot of time at the WPS draft — but Atlanta has acknowledged ^[1]its not going to get an expansion team in 2011. They’re holding out hope for 2013. Which may be an acknowledgment of when MLS’ next round of expansion would be.

If it were purely random, this would up St. Louis’ chances from 1 in 3 to 2 in 5. But it’s not random, and since everyone was pretty much dismissing Atlanta from the start, this doesn’t change the dynamic at all. As a friend told me during the coaches convention, the league can’t not speak to an NFL owner, no matter how remote that interest is.

As for how the other five stack up, well, I think St. Louis is third right now, but every bid has issues. Yes, Miami looks good, but the market has failed before and even now has a spotty record of supporting not just soccer, but other pro sports. (Case in point: No one goes to Marlins’ games.) The stadium situation there is bad (a scheduled international friendly set for the FIU stadium was moved to Lockhart because of stadium issues), an Astroturf field that is not owned by the team. Yes, there’s a lot of money. Vancouver at this point may have the strongest bid, with really, really wealthy ownership. There are short term issues about a stadium — they would play in a large football stadium — but there seems to be a confidence that the presence of a team would pave the way for a new stadium. Portland needs government help to renovate its stadium and build a new stadium for the evicted minor league baseball team. Could that be a tough sell for a municipal government? Yes. There’s apparently a vote on it in March. Ottawa is a beautiful city, but I don’t know that it brings much to the league. They’re much better off with Vancouver. And St. Louis’ bid, at least from the league’s standpoint, is isn’t* well financed enough. If you know someone with $25 or so million, tell them to call Jeff Cooper.

(*- corrected per kc below.)

I think St. Louis still has a shot because other bids could have more serious problems and Garber said the league is definitely expanding this year. Cooper is still confident. In two months, we’ll know.