TOWER GROVE — Another day, another runoff.
The fallout from the high-end changes to the St. Louis Cardinals’ depth chart of prospects appears to be close votes and very few clear-cut, obvious prospects who stand out above their peers. The vote for No. 9 in the Bird Land Community Top 21 is another example. Tyler Greene and Daniel Descalso are separated by a total of nine votes at last check. Greene has received 29 percent of the vote, with Descalso taking 27 percent of the 472 clicks logged. This is a fitting runoff, because it’s one that played out for me as I started putting together the Baseball America Top 30.
It would be much easier if Greene’s time in the majors was enough to make him ineligible for the list. But he’s not. He’s there, and likely for the last time. So, the duel between Greene and Descalso comes down to some start differences:
- Age: Greene’s 26 vs. Descalso’s 23
- Proximity: Greene is on the doorstep of the majors vs. Descalso set for Class AAA return
- Potential: Greene is seen as UT first, SS possible vs. Descalso as 2B starter
- Production: Greene has the better digits in AAA, but Descalso has been more consistent.
- Position: Shortstop vs. Second Base
It’s the last one there that catches my eye. Greene has played shortstop throughout his professional career, and he’s done with increasing proficiency while remaining athletic. He’s got the best infield arm in the system, according to several observers. He also has vastly improved the high-wire act that used to contribute to high error totals. Descalso is considered the best defensive second baseman in the system — and one of the best in the Texas League — but it’s not shortstop. Descalso came to the Cardinals as a third baseman out of college, and there was some thought of giving him a run at shortstop. VP Jeff Luhnow told me yesterday that Descalso slid to second base in part because of the players the system already had at SS and 3B. He wasn’t going to trump any of their defensive ability or offensive production, respectively, but he could fill a longstanding thin spot in the system: second base.
It’s not the biggest difference between the two players, but it may be the most decisive when choosing between the two in this runoff. Does a starting second baseman deserve a better rank than a shortstop who could serve in a utility role for the major-league club this coming season? Hard call. It’s yours. The winner will be the No. 9 prospect in the poll. The runnerup will complete the top 10, and we’ll move to No. 11 tomorrow.
And there will probably be a runoff there, too.
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Some of those other shortstops mentioned were blocked because of organizational depth–not much of that in St Louis at the middle infield positions.
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No matter who you prefer and it is a close battle…in my mind both these guys project to be nothing more than utility players, whether here or somewhere else. I would think because of his experience in the bigs Tyler Greene should get it, although I voted for Descalso because of the age factor. At some point in the future I can see either one of these players becoming, “the player to be named later”.
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I don’t think he’s saying the sb isn’t important overall. He appears to be sarcastically making the point that it’s not important to the Cards, because TLR won’t allow anyone to run anyway. Overall the sb is having a mild resurgence the last few years. Personally, I think TLR’s failure to be aggressive in front of Albert is a mistake.
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Point taken on the decline of the stolen base overall. It still serves as some measure of having speed or at least being a good baserunner when compared to the caught stealing number. In some instances when the prospect is young enough, it can oddly project to a future increase of power.
If a player has a good stolen base total to go along something in the hitting category, such as a high BA, high OBP (on-base percentage) or increasing XBH (extra-base hits), especially doubles, in future years you might see the stolen base totals go down in balance with an increase in home run totals. David Wright in the minors was a doubles & steals guy. Miguel Cabrera in the minors was a power/speed blend who hit for high BA. In Cabrera’s case, he sacrificed a bit in BA & SB to increase HR.
In Tyler Greene’s case, it might hint to a short spike in power, but overall on Greene your point would be more correct.
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Though I am a big fan of a player having speed and stealing bases (i.e., Tyler Greene), since Tony rarely gives the green light to anyone but Albert (and evidently Yadi now, also), what’s the point of even looking at that tool in our prospects? It will make them more desirable to other teams in a trade situation, but as far as projecting potential for our prospects to play on the Cardinals team, the point is moot, unfortunately.
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DG:
If Reifer and Samuel are two hard throwers, with control problems, on your list, why is Casey Mulligan not on your list? He’s younger than both Reifer and Samuel, and despite not having pitched that long, his stuff is electric. At Springfield, he allowed 15hits in 20ip, with 12 bbs and 27 Ks. Is it because he’s so raw, without a servicible 2nd pitch?
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DG – Are you going to get a new poll up for the weekend?
Also, what do you think of Mike Parisi? I think he might have something to say in the 5th starter derby. Might be an interesting idea to have a post-TJ surgery platoon in that rotation slot. Garcia/Parisi would both benefit from having less innings on their newly reconstructed elbows. Furthermore, you could leave Hawk and Boggs in the pen where their stuff plays better.
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I can understand a vote either way, but lets not get too carried away and determine that an AAA player at 25 is washed up. Tyler didn’t turn 26 until the season was 80% over, so he played most the year at 25. There are plenty of good SS’s who didn’t play their first full season in the majors until 25 or 26. How about Zobrist, Scutari, Young, Bartlett, or Escobar. Think we’d be ok with most if not any of them? Some people just find it a little later than others and 25 isn’t old in AAA ball. The average age in AA is 23. Tyler potentially brings a skill set to the Cards that we haven’t seen at SS since Renteria. He’s 6′2″ and 190 pounds. He hit .290 with 15 HR’s slugging .482 in only 340 at bats. He also stole 31 bases while being caught just 3 times. He is potentially a 20-30 player. Descalso though maybe a more refined hitter at a younger age doesn’t bring the raw upside that Tyler brings to the table.
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I just don’t get the emphasis on proximity that we’re seeing in these polls. I don’t think Tyler Greene belongs in the top 10 prospects list and if his presumed proximity to the majors is the reason he’s there, it just doesn’t seem like enough. So, I got frustrated with the polls and stopped voting in them, but do still like to read DG’s remarks. I like to see higher upside and potential in prospects. I think that’s what actually makes someone a prospect, as opposed to a player in the minor league system. When ranking prospects, it would also seem important to take into account how desirable the player would be to other teams looking to trade. You look at Colby Rasmus, prior to this year, and Brett Wallace, and those two guys were top prospects because they showed great promise. That promise wasn’t just the Cardinals evaluation of things either; other teams saw and were interested in that promise, as well. I don’t see Tyler Green or some of the other guys who made the top 10 having that same value. But, that’s jmho.
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Odds are good it will never happen for contract reasons, but I’d prefer Lugo out of the St. Louis picture and see both DeRosa and Schu hold down 2nd base until Descalso is major league ready, which on paper, looks to be not too far away.
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BOB, you are right on. Tyler Greene is 26 and reach his meagre upside. He’s always been a strikeout machine in the minors and that sure as heck wouldn’t (and didn’t) change in the majors. Sure he can steal bases and hit for power, when he makes contact, but he also makes too many errors and whiffs at an Ankielian rate.
Descalso should be the choice and I wouldn’t even put Tyler behind him in the voting.
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Tough call. I just don’t have the faith in Descalso some do. Springfield has made many look people look like stars. To me prospect lists have one factor. What kind of major league career do you reasonably expect them to have? Age and proximity are helpful information but they don’t make or break a prospect IHMO. Position has to with value. To me its not a list of the most valuable players, but a list of players that have major league potential and likelyhood that potential will be realized over their career.
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Tyler Greene seems like the AAA version of Khalil Greene.
Daniel Descalso seems like the next version of Jarrett Hoffpauir.
I want to see Hoffpauir’s name at least make the voting list, but given the comparisons I am definitely voting Descalso.
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Bob, It wasn’t just you. His Triple-A performance did not translate to the majors. That’s not unusual, but it should be a factor.
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I have voted for Dez partly because I view him as a higher upside. As much as I like Greene (who can noe drop the T finally…bye bye K.Greene, the K stood for much more than his name), Dez has the higher upside. Skip can’t be around forever. Both Dez and Skip bat left, which makes it inevitable for Skip to be moved with DJ, JJ, and AC waiting for outfield jobs.
Greene could be an everyday shortstop, but not a great one. He’s better suited for a John Mabry utility role, but better. Greene can play 2B/SS/3B with ease. With that strong arm and speed, who could fit into a backup outfield job as well (maybe TLR wasn’t nuts for putting him in CF). Dez has starter written all over him. He might have to take a short Aug/Sept bench job in 2011, but he’ll be the starting second baseman in 2012 for sure, possibly even 2011. With another good year and more improvement on defense from Skip, he could be a pivotal trade chip next off-season.
And on the Greene playing outfield idea, he could serve a great purpose. If he can handle the outfield, he could be our backup RH OF, meaning we could carry one true outfielder, a la Jon Jay, as a backup, while also carrying two infielders with Greene.
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Age did it for me. Descalso.
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Is it just me, or was Tyler Greene overmatched in the majors this year? If I recall, he fanned 32 times and walked just 4(!), while hitting around .200–and that, after a hot start.
With Lugo on the team (and FREE, thanks to the Red Sox), I’m not sure the Cards need Tyler Greene now or ever, even in a utility role.
Dan Descalso “is considered the best defensive second baseman in the system”, and at age 22 in AA he hit .320+, with power, and (unlike Tyler Greene’s entire career including college) showed good control of the strikezone.
The fact that there is a debate baffles me. But maybe I’m easily baffled.
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