SOUTH GRAND — The St. Louis Cardinals plan to get their starting center fielder back as soon as tonight, but that will force them to confront a looming decision about what to do with their … starting center fielder.
In Rick Ankiel’s absence to recover from his frightening crash into the outfield wall, rookie Colby Rasmus has started every game in center field. It is the position he’s earmarked to take, eventually, even as Ankiel’s replacement. Ankiel’s turn on the DL gave Rasmus an opportunity, and it gave the Cardinals a prelude. This season manager Tony La Russa has sided with incumbency as the rule when deciding who plays center field. Rasmus is the more natural center fielder, but Ankiel is the more experienced center fielder — at the major-league level. Ankiel is the emerging slugger who popped 25 home runs last season and has 68 home runs in his previous 269 games, including 32 in 102 games at Class AAA. Rasmus is the emerging star, who has found his groove with the consistent playing and is now providing a power spark that has been missing for the Cardinals lineup.
It’s the Rasmus Razor. Do the Cardinals find a way to keep Rasmus’ glove and bat in the lineup at the position he’ll ultimately own? Can he continue his recent progress and production with reduced playing time? Or does Ankiel — who did play in a corner position last year to ease his return from injury — slide back into center? That’s the position he identifies with most, where his arm is an asset, and where he’s had his share of highlights.
There’s certainly room in the outfield for both of them, now and later. It’s just how they’re positioned. Seems like a good place to start the 10@10.
1. Rasmus’ last three hits, including his two-run shot Tuesday against the Chicago Cubs, have all been two-run home runs. Throw in the rained-out homer — which doesn’t count in the stats, but like Skip Schumaker’s diving catch a year ago still happened — and Rasmus has four home runs in his past 18 at-bats. (Officially, it’s three in 17.) The power surge, while not accompanied by a similar rise in his average (he’s hitting .239 this month), does reflect a growing comfort at the plate for the rookie. Rasmus did not have a home run in April, and in his first 99 plate appearances he hit .256 with six extra-base hits (one homer), nine walks and 19 strikeouts. In his 26 plate appearances since, he’s batting just .227 but has three homers and two walks against three strikeouts. La Russa is hyper-aware of any of his players thinking home run, swinging home run, talking home run. And Rasmus is careful to say that when he’s hitting home runs that just means he’s hitting well. “Get a good pitch to hit,” Rasmus said, “and swing as hard as I can.”
2. All of that leads to a rather obvious poll, with a less obvious answer:
Loading …3. A confluence of winning histories could return to the Cardinals lineup tonight. Ankiel, as mentioned above, will be back, and the Cardinals are giddy with the return of former Cy Young award winner Chris Carpenter. The two players share a common distinction when it comes to the team record with them around — they have historically made the winning percentage better. The Cardinals are 105-86 (.550) with Ankiel in the outfield, the best winning percentage of any player who has appeared in 150 or more games since Ankiel “retired” as a pitcher and tried this whole hitting n’ catching the ball thingy. The Cardinals are 70-30 in games with Carpenter for a .700 winning percentage. That is the best of any player on the roster, regardless of games played and edging reliever Ryan Franklin (110-49, .692).
4. Joel Pineiro had impeccable timing for what was arguably the best start of his career, and what was certainly the best start of his career as a Cardinal. Backed by superb defense, Pineiro needed just 92 pitches to get through the fourth shutout of his career. It is the fewest pitches in a complete game this season. Pineiro’s gem halted, for the evening, the Cardinals longest skid of the season and it gave the bullpen a night off on the eve of Chris Carpenter’s return. At ESPN.com, they “score” starts and keep tracking of the highest scoring starts of the season. Back in 2005, Carpenter “scored” a 94 with one of the finest games of his career — a shutout of his former team, Toronto, that included one hit allowed and 10 strikeouts. Pineiro’s scored an 86, the third highest of the season so far in the National League … and the first not thrown against the Pittsburgh Pirates:
Aaron Harang, Cin … vs. PIT … CG/SHO … 9.0 … 3 H … 0 BB … 9 K … Score: 90
Yovani Gallardo, Mil … vs. PIT … CG/SHO … 9.0 … 2 H … 1 BB … 10 K … Score: 88
Joel Pineiro, Stl … vs. CHN … CG/SHO … 9.0 … 3 H … 0 BB … 5 K … Score: 86
5. Albert Pujols next two-hit game will be the 463rd of his career, the second-most of any active player since 2001, trailing only Ichiro Suzuki’s 564. But here’s the .330-average question: When is it OK to wonder if Pujols is slumping? Too often the Cardinals first baseman gets questions about his average and his dropping performance when he’s, oh, just hitting .300. So, some sense of realism is necessary. Yet, Pujols went 1-for-4 against the Cubs on Tuesday, doubling in his final at-bat. Pujols is hitting .291 this month. But, his average has dropped from .343 to .319 in the past 10 games. He’s batting 8-for-37 in that span with only five walks. Teams are pitching to him. He’s fouling off a lot of pitches on the edges. Is it too early to ask?
6. To quote from today’s ESPN’s “Inside Edge” scouting report on Carpenter, “every pitch in his repertoire has worked” this season for the righthander. He’s yet to allow an earned run in 10 innings this season, and he’s bedeviling hitters with a fastball, curve, slider, tight slider/cutter combination. Take the slider data from the scouting report. Of the sliders he’s throw, 73.3 percent have been in the strike zone and 55.6 have been chased. And remarkably, only 11.1 percent of his sliders have been put in play.
7. FARMNIK REPORT: Another day, another couple hits for Brett Wallace. That third baseman who is generating so much buzz in the message boards, blogs and a-Twitter, went 2-for-3 with a couple singles and a walk. … But the story of Triple-A Memphis’ 3-1 victory Tuesday was starter Blake Hawksworth. The former No. 1 prospect whose time on the 40-man roster is ticking, Hawksworth plunged his ERA to 3.49 with 6 1/3 innings of work that included one run allowed, six hits and seven strikeouts. … Josh Kinney worked a scoreless ninth with a strikeout for his first save of the season. … Shortstop Donovan Solano also had two hits and he drove in two of the three runs. … In Double-A Springfield’s 6-1 victory, Mark Hamilton, who fits that Three True Outcome profile discussed yesterday, homered, walked twice, scored twice and drove in a run. … Tony Cruz had two hits and two runs scored, and outfielder Tyler Henley matched three hits with three RBIs. … Trey Hearne improved to 3-1 and is putting together quite a bounceback season. In seven innings he allowed four hits and one run. He struck out seven. Hearne did not walk a batter and he dropped his ERA to 3.07. … Eddie Degerman, the decorated NCAA pitcher and pie-thrower from a couple drafts ago, pitched a scoreless inning in relief. … Adron Chambers had his first multi-hit game in a week and started to claw out of a spiral with a 2-for-3 day in Palm Beach’s 4-2 loss to Sarasota. Chambers is 9-for-40 in his past games with four walks and six strikeouts. … Lefty Nick Additon brought in an 18-inning consecutive scoreles streak. He pitched two innings and allowed a run on one hit and three walks. … Quad Cities defeated Kane County, 6-5, with a couple runs in the bottom of the 10th inning. Alex Castellanos drove in the winning runs with a two-run, two-out single. … Charles Cutler, starting at DH, went 4-for-5 and is 7-for-9 in his past two games. He’s hitting .362 this season with 34 hits in 27 games and 11 walks against 11 strikeouts for a .422 on-base percentage.
8. Wentzville Holt alum Tim Melville will make his professional debut tonight for the Kansas City Royal’s affiliate in the Midwest League. Melville, a righthander, was taken in the fourth round of last summer’s draft. But his upside was enough that he had been pegged as a first-round candidate and the Royals did sign him for a hefty $1.25-million bonus. He’ll start for the Burlington Bees.
9. Infielder Brendan Ryan, back from a hamstring injury, has two stolen bases in his past two games. On Tuesday, he stole third to get closer to home for an RBI single. This is an element of Ryan’s game that he hasn’t uncorked often in the majors, and it’s an element of the Cardinals lineup this season that has idled. Pujols leads the team with six steals this season, and the Cardinals’ 21 steals this season are the 10th-most in the NL. Ryan stole 30 bases in one of his low-minor seasons and he stole 24 total — combined Class AAA and majors — as recently as 2007. “There’s a certain element of trust that comes with getting the green light from Tony,” Ryan said Tuesday night. “Hopefully we can use it a little more. If I get the shot I’m definitely not going to back away. I love to use my legs and try to swipe bags. Hopefully those opportunities will continue to be there.”
10. Yadier Molina’s pickoff of Alfonso Soriano in the first inning of Tuesday’s game was his third of the season and the 29th of his career. Houston catcher Ivan Rodriguez is the active leader with 81 pickoffs in his career entering this season. One would think Molina won’t get the chance to match that number because opponents will eventually take notice that it ain’t worth that extra step away from first base. Yet, Molina had seven pickoffs last year, and this isn’t a new asset he’s sporting. And he has three already this season. La Russa suggested that Molina and Pujols, with this little voodoo that they do, will continue to pick players off. Part of it is how they sell it. Part of it is the game.
“You have to (lead off first),” La Russa said. “You can’t win hanging next to first base. You don’t break up double plays. You don’t ever get to third base. You have to.”
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all four players will, at one time or another this year, win games for the C’s with their bats. Only one will likely lose multiple games with their lack of fielding prowess.
Duncan needs to be around to fill in for injuries and slumps; he takes a turn for Pujols once in awhile, too. I think for this year, we are set. Ankiel’s free agency and the development of one or two minor league guys will determine whether big changes happen next year.
Remember, every one of those four outfielders has a history of injuries.
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OTHER: The outfield ultimately will be LF: Duncan, CF: Rasmus, RF: Ankiel. LF because Duncan isn’t going anywhere. CF because Rasmus is the Annointed One. RF because Ankiel is LaRussa’s favorite. Ludwick will be traded for a shortstop who hits above the Mendoza Line.
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As long as Tony is the only one with any say, and the GM and owner are just figureheads, they’ll continue to trot out Baby Dunc in left field. It’s time to not only preach player development, but practice it.
I read a quote from Tony talking about “picking the right spots” for Rasmus a few weeks ago. It’s clear with the Ankiel injury and the better than adequate substitute performance by Rasmus, the kid gloves are not necessary. They’ll win more games with good defense, and not lose a thing on the offensive side.
As an aside, it would probably provide less pressure for Duncan to go to a city and play his natural position in a place where nepotism would not be a possibility.
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86% of those responding to the above poll indicate that Duncan is the odd man out.
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LLudwick,CFRasmus,RAnkiel, 1B Duncan, 3B Pujols. WORKS AT 2nd?
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It is strange that you have a couple of comments criticizing Ankiel for his fielding prowess while chastising others for making negative comments about Duncan. I can not see what the love affair with Duncan is. He has not been hitting great all year. He had a stretch where he was hitting fair but that has declined recently, and he is extremely sub par defensively, at least in the outfield, and I believe he has a negative impact on moral with the rest of the team. This I have gleaned from face to face comments with a couple of players over the past couple of years. Ankiel on the other hand seemed to have an immediate negative effect on the teams performance with his injury, although I concede this is anecdotal …. At a minimum Duncan has absolutely cost the Cardinals at least one win and probably two with his defense, and this does not count balls that fall in because he has gotten a horrible jump or mis-read the ball. And anyone that thinks that any other player could PERFORM the way Duncan has and not earned a trip down or out is absolutely in denial …. If memory serves Brendan Ryan earned a trip down for swinging 3-0 ….I am not a Duncan hater … As many have stated about Rasmus playing his natural position , Duncan could probably be a fair or maybe even good player; playing his natural position; somewhere ELSE ….
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Rasmus covers CF like it is supposed to be covered. Maybe in right Dick Ankiel will not beat himself up so bad running down balls. His screw ups on routes and diving to make the catches are web gems (lol) but he will stay injured trying to run down routine fly balls in this fashion. The cardinal nation has spoken and seems to be on track with Ludwick, Rasmus, and Dick Ankiel in the outfield in that order.
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Bern H. – Duncan’s bat isn’t on fire right now either; maybe try slipping him into the #2 slot in front of AP. That said, the only way for a player like Ankiel or Rasmus to improve at this level is to play. Every day. Duncan’s game is best suited to the AL.
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Given injury histories, streakiness, match-ups, etc., the best situation is having 4 starter-qualified outfielders rotating through the 3 outfield spots, with Skip available when needed.
Do you really think that Ankiel will walk in the off-season? Personally, I don’t. Boras or no Boras, Rick’s experience melting down as a pitcher I believe has alerted him to the fragility of his psyche and he has established positive relationships with team management, fans, players, etc. Provide him with a fair contract offer and I think he’ll stay. Can you image him dealing daily with New York fans and media? Meltdown 2 in the making… And he needs to look no further than Khalil Green to see what happens when anxiety takes over.
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First off, Chris Duncan shouldn’t be playing anywhere in the field, let alone an outfield position. All Larussa is going to do is screw Rasmus out of a shot at ROY. He will get just enough AB’s to lose his ROY status this year, but not enough AB’s to put up ROY numbers.
Barring an injury our outfiled should consist of Ludwick,Ankiel,Rasmus the rest of the year.
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No mention of Wentzville Holt alumni Ross Detwiler starting on Monday?
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“Very simple solution. Rasmus stays,plays CF and Duncan goes to the Mets or Red Sox. Problem solved.”
ankiel is on the way out after ‘09. in that case, just who do you propose takes Duncan’s spot after he’s traded?
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DG
Some of the greatest trades in baseball history have been that way. You just don’t see them that often now due to “no-trade” clauses and free agents.
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So since Duncan is struggling right now he sits? Ankiel is hitting .247 on the year with only 11 rbi. Since it seems like the concensus is Ankiel is walking next year so if we trade Duncan or don’t trust him to start are you really comfotable with Shane Robinson or Nick Stavinoah being the everyday left fielder? Or would you prefer John Jay or Joe Mather? Neither of these guys are hitting at all in Memphis. Maybe Brett Wallace? You think Duncan’s defense is bad out there why would you throw a guy who has been on the infield his whole life out there? You can’t have it both ways there are always trade-offs.
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Someone on here said Duncan is hitting well……no he\’s not. He was for the first few weeks of the season but is now down to .252. Last 7 games he is hitting something like .059. Move him to the bench. I like his power off the bench, but not as a starter once Ankiel and Ludwick come back.
Ludwick in left
Rasmus in center
Ankiel in right
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Someone on here said Duncan is hitting well……no he’s not. He was for the first few weeks of the season but is now down to .252. Last 7 games he is hitting something like .059. Move him to the bench. I like his power off the bench, but not as a starter once Ankiel and Ludwick come back.
Ludwick in left
Rasmus in center
Ankiel in right
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good stuff, as always DG. a related suggestion/request: would love to see you do a quick analysis of ankiel’s defense. there is a common perception among many that he is an above-average CF defender because he has made some highlight reel catches but my (admittedly fuzzy) recollection is that the sophisticated stats have shown him to be below average. seems to me that any discussion of ank vs. rasmus in CF needs to consider defense at such a premium defense position. grazie.
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From what has anyone seen this year does it even matter debating the starters? I voted other simply cause LaRussa is going to mix and match all season long. There are only 2 starters on this team so whats the point discussing this topic? Also, Ive got something to add to the people who say trade Duncan. Why? Who would play play left field next year assuming Ankiel walks? I thought cards fans were supposed to the smartest fans in baseball. DG you have to do an article on why Hawksworth hasn’t gotten his shot in the majors. It seems absurd to think he can do no worse than Wellemeyer. Hawksworth’s inability to get a shot reminds me of Thompson’s being banished to the bullpen because they say he is so valuable in the long reliever role yet whenever I see a starter leaving in the 4th or 5th you never see Thompson warming up. I just dont understand it. Someone please explain to me.
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They should play some combination of Ludwick, Ankiel, and Rasmus. Duncan isn’t a good fielder and shouldn’t be starting so much. These 3 are truly the best 3 outfielders they have. The problem is that LaRussa has a blind obsession with Chris Duncan, and his dad is probably an influence there too. I predict that when Ludwick comes back, the outfield will be LF Duncan, RF Ludwick, and the rotation of Ankiel and Rasmus in CF will continue.
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NewAJArete,
Thanks. Should read: former top prospect and that morphed into the wrong round and wrong words. Bizarre. Damn this typing thing.
Seriously, I thought the poll would be closer.
Of course, I failed to account for the Duncan Blindspot. Seems like there is a vocal group of fans who don’t think what he offers offensively — you know, when the whole lineup isn’t sagging — doesn’t outweigh his play in the field. It is odd. And that group is devoted. There was one comment that described him unfavorable and then suggested he be traded. Huh? Cannot have it both ways. A player cannot be refuse to you AND get you gold in return.
Just saying.
dg
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What is up with all the Duncan hate still? No, he is not good in the field, but we need to be realistic and realize we need his bat. You say ship him to New York. I say look at his numbers this year, he is the best option around to platoon and be there for when Ankiel and/or Ludwick possibly get hurt again. So start being REAL Cardinals fans and show our guys some support!
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J.R.
Duncan is a true 1b/DH and could make millions in the american league which the cardinals may eventually have to pay and we have 3 true outfielders now and a few in the minors almost ready. Plus I think alot of people still cringe when a line drive is hit his way.
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From what we’ve seen recently, can someone please present a legitimate case on why in the world Tony would take Duncan out of the lineup? I mean a real case not “Chris Duncan sucks, we should trade him”. The guy is slugging .447 and leading the team in doubles and triples yet it’s “obvious” that he should sit?
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I never understand why people suggest Pujols is slumping. Every year since 2001 Big Al has had a questionable month, and in 2001 he had two. Which by Al’s standards they have been questionable, .280-.290ish few homers and RBI, but yet every year people panic and wonder if this is the year he implodes. Al tries to win every game and never takes a at bat off, he is the best player, so relax.
Ludwick LF, Ramus CF, Rick RF, Duncan to the American league where he can become a star. Once again no offense to Duncan, but he just doesn’t fit in St. Louis. Plus package him with K. Greene and we could bag a nice pitcher I bet.
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Bern H
Last time I checked, Duncan was still stuck on 3 HR’s. Hardly a POWER hitter. It’s time to DH or go play first for someone else.
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Judging by the poll results i think it’s pretty unanimus that the Cardinal fans on this forum want to see Duncan on the bench, DEFINATELY behind Rasmus.
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Correction of my previous post, I meant to say “first” not firt round pick.
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DG, you do a great job covering the Cardinals and appreciate the blog. I can tell you’re very knowledgeable on the whole Cardinals organization and hope you keep it up. One minor note is that Blake Hawksworth was not a firt round pick, but rather picked in the 28th round of 2001 draft. This is according to MILB.com.
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I think this a NO-BRAINER.
If Ankiel is ready to play and he is in the lineup tonight, Rasmus had better be in the lineup also!!
If he starts Duncan over Rasmus, Larussa needs his gourd examined!!!
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I’m excited to see Ankiel back because I can’t stand Stavinoha, but I think Ankiel should play right field for about a week. Let him ease back into the game. Then, after about 7 or 8 games, move him back to CF and have Rasmus play RF. Then, when Ludwick comes off the DL, bench Duncan. He’s trash. I have said this for a long time. Deal him off to an AL team. Big Game Shane can be the 4th OF with a starting OF of Rasmus/Ankiel/Ludwick.
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LPD,
Nitpick away. Thanks for the heads up, on two fronts:
1. Because you read to the end.
2. Because clearly the spell-check did not — or did and went wonky.
dg
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Duncan is hitting well… his value is probably as high as it will go, which makes this a good time to trade him for depth and/or pitching. Perhaps a minor league shortstop, someone that can make the bigs in a year or two? I agree with an earlier comment, put Ankeil in right, where his arm becomes a greater asset and he can hold more runners at second. Ludwick stays in left and let Rasmus continue playing well in center field. Ankeil doesn’t have a natural position really, and keeping him in right also is less wear on his legs which will allow him to be a power hitter longer.
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Not sure what to do. It is easy. Trade Duncan while you can and put Rasmus
out in left. Not a hard question.
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DG, what is the story with Additon and his short start last night? Injury?
I’m in favor of a LF-Ludwick, CF-Rasmus, RF-Ankiel alignment.
DG, here’s my solution for Albert: play all day games. Day/night splits:
Day: .320/.486/.740
Night: .318/.378/..602
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The best solution is to trade Ankiel before the All Star Break. Why? Because he is a free agent after this year and guess who his agent is? Boros!! You got it. The Cards should be able to get one or two quality players for him before they get nothing.
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DG:
I’m not one to nitpick as a general rule, but thought I would alert you to the fact that you have an uncharacteristically large number of typos in your final paragraph.
I also think Rasmus should stay in CF and Ank go to RF, where his big arm would be a plus. On the experience front, it seems like all the years Rasmus spent learning the fundamentals of playing CF ought to count for at least as much as Ankiel’s 1+ seasons playing CF in the major leagues.
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LF, Ankiel – CF, Rasmus – RF, Ludwick
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Donovan Solano was not in the Top 30 for Baseball America. He was listed as fourth on the depth chart at shortstop — behind Kozma, T Greene and Jose Martinez.
Not sure Rasmus ever was a “Faberge Egg.” You’d have to ask the guy who coined the phrase — Bernie Miklasz. His blog is just a few doors down in this little neighborhood of cyberspace we occupy.
dg
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How well did Donovan Solano rate in DG’s survey of StL prospects?
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What’s the deal with Additon? Why did he only pitch 2 innings?
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Hey Chuck:
With the current state of the economy, and job opportunities few and far between, perhaps you should consider your true calling in MLB management. Surely teams are beating down your door for a man (boy?) of your baseball intelligence. It amazes me that you are not managing or coaching now!!!
Here is a great idea: go see if you can get a job as Lou’s bench coach. It would be great fun watching the two of you ruin the most talented team in the NL Central!
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Always great DG. Any word on the roster moves that will happen to make room for Ank & Carp?
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Stolen bases have been devalued considerably since Bill James started shwoing stats suggesting that SBs are not a good idea — a quote (without stats):
“…stolen bases aren’t—really—very important. Contrary to popular belief, stolen bases don’t create very many runs. Nor do they have very much to do with determining who wins and who loses. Good teams don’t steal very many more bases than bad teams. Stolen bases have come and gone throughout baseball history because they are a sort of trendy item, an offensive trinket that has attracted managers at times but has been blithely ignored by them at others.”
James has shown that the chance of stealing a base and later scoring is less than the chance of getting thrown out.
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Bobby1964
I have one problem with getting rid of Duncan at this point. When Ankiel is slumping, another powerhitter needs to be in the lineup. Duncan would be good off the bench also.
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ESPN.com needs to figure in pitch count some how. Joel Pineiro has the lowest pitch count of any complete game yet is ranked third. I am not saying that he should rank first but they do need to figure in pitch counts for this stat to be more accurate.
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Very simple solution. Rasmus stays,plays CF and Duncan goes to the Mets or Red Sox. Problem solved.
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The best solution is to move Ankiel to right where his arm would be an even greater asset. Since the best outfield is probably Ludwick, Rasmus (cf) Ankiel, you can expect to see this setup very seldom from LaGenius
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Great piece, DG! At some point somebody in NL has to take a page out of Whitey’s playbook and realize base theft is a run producer and adds offensive momentum for the team (and their fans. Do modern baseball minds think that today’s players are not as quick, fast, athletic, and smart as Wills, Brock, and Henderson? Or have they become risk averse to a fault? I don’t get it. Maybe I’m showing my age but I really miss that part of the game.
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So is Rasmus still considered a “Faberge egg?”
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