TOWER GROVE — When Mark Mulder signed with the Cardinals this past winter, one of the glossed-over results of the deal was the club had its preferred rotation under contract at least through 2008, and potentially through 2009.
Mulder’s signing came after Chris Carpenter’s extension. Braden Looper was moving into the rotation and he’s signed through 2008, and youngsters Adam Wainwright and Anthony Reyes had years to go before being arbitration eligible. The five-man rotation was set on paper, ready to provide the stability and durability that the Cardinals rode to 100-win seasons not too long ago. Consider:
- Chris Carpenter
- Mark Mulder
- Adam Wainwrigh
- Anthony Reyes
- Braden Looper
Signed. Sealed. Delivering.
Best laid plans …
With two months remaining in the 2007 season, the present rotation is jumbled and the future is hardly clear. The news that Carpenter will need Tommy John surgery makes his availability for the 2008 season like Mulder’s availability for the 2007 season. Reyes is in Triple-A, so far off the radar that manager Tony La Russa recently said that struggling Kip Wells was going to stay in the rotation and no one was “waiting in the wings” to join the group. As GM Walt Jocketty said: “The point is — what are the alternatives?” Not too long ago Reyes was more than an alternative and now he has the feel of a bargaining chip.
The Cardinals 2008 pitching rotation has, best-case scenario, two holes to fill.
- Adam Wainwright
- Mark Mulder
- Braden Looper
- (open)
- (open)
There are several in-house favorites for either of the two openings, chiefly Ryan Franklin who figures to be pressed into the competition — if not handed a spot — during spring training. (Remember his extension was written in such a way to provide bonuses for games started, too.) Brad Thompson has pitched well enough in his starts to have the incumbency tag. That fills the staff.
But is that the best rotation possible?
Other on-roster candidates include: Mike Maroth (who the team has the right to tender a contract to), Troy Cate, Reyes, Todd Wellemeyer (like Maroth), Blake Hawksworth (who is on the 40-man roster) and Reyes.
And there is always free agency.
A year ago the Cardinals hit the winter with a shopping list and a rotation about to picked-apart by free agency. They probably won’t have to deal with the World Series-sweetened salaries a few of their free-agent pitchers got this year, but they will have to wade into a market that will be no less berserk than last year’s. They may use the same argument they side this past offseason — that they are comfortable with the candidates on hand — but they may not be able to stand as firmly on it because we’ve seen how that panned out.
They have to overpay to outfit a contending rotation.
Some of the potential free agents for the upcoming winter: familiar face Jeff Weaver, familiar foe Carlos Zambrano (your big-money pitcher this winter), Curt Schilling, Joe Kennedy, Jason Jennings, Randy Wolf (LA has an option), Kris Benson (there’s an option), Kip Wells (yes, he’s an option), Jon Lieber, Bartolo Colon, Freddy Garcia and Paul Byrd (Cleveland has an option). An intriguing name to remember is Mark Prior, but he doesn’t for certain fill a vacancy.
The Cardinals need certains.
So, the challenge presented to you is to build the Cardinals a new rotation. Use pieces from the roster. Use pieces from the free-agent market.
Remember, Reyes is in his last year of options so he has to fit somewhere or elsewhere — and, no, a package of him, John Rodriguez and Brian Esposito will not land Dontrelle Willis. Price is not a factor here, though signing both Zambrano and Jennings is highly unlikely. Ludicrous, unfounded trades will be overruled. Only two spots are fixed — because Looper or Wainwright could, in some scenarios, move back to the bullpen, but not both.
My rough draft, without considering potential trades, to get the rotations spinning:
- Mulder
- Wainwright
- Looper
- Franklin
- Kennedy (ignore the climbing walks and W-L record; check out his recent GO/AO and tell me how he doesn’t fit)
- Thompson, Maroth (because the Cardinals will want competition in spring)
You can do better.
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Cross your fingers and pray that Zambrano reaches free agency before the Cubs resign him. Then, pay him more than any other team. We need a stud and he’s the only one we are going to get without trading away our best prospects. If we are truly going to contend for a World Series next year, it’s the only way without getting really lucky. Then you have Wainwright, Mulder, Zambrano, the two of Reyes, Looper, Thompson, Maroth. And finally, Carpenter (cross your fingers again) after the trading deadline next year and hopefully healthy by playoff time. giving you Zambrano, Wainwright, Mulder and Carpenter for the playoffs. Not a bad staff. Now if we can just trade Rolen and sign Cabrerra the sun will shine over Busch again!
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Trade Izzy, Encarnacion, and Reyes….(who closes? I don’t see a great option, but I guess Franklin is the candidate).
Who could we get? Brad Penny? I don’t like Dontrelle Willis as an option, and I don’t see the Marlins wanting to spend. The Reds could offer Arroyo, the Braves could maybe send someone like Smoltz, how ’bout Colorado, with Fuentes a question mark? Jeff Francis? If we could bring a good young pitcher through trade, maybe the Cards could promote Ankiel to fill Encarn’s spot….I sure would like to think they would offer money up to get Miguel Cabrera, but that’ll never happen.
Love your posts, Derrick, I think your blog posts are the smartest available, better than VEB, who everyone seems to give the nod to, anyway (no offense to lboros, who does run a great blog). Keep us informed!
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This recent trend toward trading Rick Ankiel fascinates me. The Cardinals have invested all this time — not to mention money — into a pitcher who is on the brink of being an impact outfielder and there is a growing sentiment that his best use to the franchise now is to land … cue the irony … a pitcher.
Can anybody explain this to me? Why wouldn’t the Cardinals keep him?
dg
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My suggestion is to package Reyes and Ankiel together and trade them for a younger pitcher nearing arbitration on a small market team, Joe Blanton for example. Then sign a couple of veterans that may come cheaper than normal like Jason Jennings and Bartolo Colon.
2008:
Wainwright
Mulder
Colon
Blanton
Jennings
Next Five:
Thompson
Narveson
Garcia
Hawksworth
Ottavio
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Dont pay for ‘Aces’, they just take up too much of your budget. Pay for mid rotation guys and try to build aces through your system. Also, leave Franklin in the Pen. He has been money, and in case everone forgot, he SUCKS as a starter. Also, lets not fool ourselves with Looper. Put him back in the Pen.
2008 Rotation (my prediction):
1. Wainright
2. Mulder
3. Jennings (not a bad K/9 rate)
4. Kennedy (Cheap lefty)
5. Thompason (clearly better as a SP, keep pitchin to contact brotha).
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I agree about Franklin, Jills. I even think he is happy in the pen, since he signed his extension and expressed his comfort here.
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One thing I forget to add is about Ryan Franklin. He’s been a starter in the past, and his record was not very good, so I don’t have too much comfort with him except as a spot starter.
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PLEASE PLEASE PLEASE Break posts up into smaller sections. Long posts are tedious to read. Yuk.
Kennedy? No, no, no. He barely has a better than Wellsian history.
Dontrelle? Who knows. If he can find his game again. Maybe a change of scenery would help.
I agree with jillsinimo to a degree. Duncan is good in ways, but has his own shortcomings. Who doesn’t I guess? It has to be a tough gage, woring with pitchers. Jeff Weaver became a sem-ace under Duncan. Others have wilted.
Next year?
Wainwright…Mulder(hoping for good health)…Zambrano(if possible, gulp, yes spend the money)…and a group chosen from Thompson, Wellemeyer, Looper, Hawksworth, etc.
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As far as the rotation goes, yes to Wainwright, cautious with Mulder, we really have to see what he looks like after recovery. As far as Looper goes, I will reserve judgement until he completes a season. Thompson has done okay, but I’m concerned about what happens when his sinker won’t sink. He’s really got nothing else…and he sometimes gets hit hard. No to A. J. Burnett-he’s been on the DL ten times. They need someone that they can reasonably expect to take the ball every 5 days. Dontrelle-well the d-train is kind of a trainwreck right now, it would be a big risk. Why are they so willing to kick Reyes to the curb? I know he can’t throw a sinker, and I know when he’s been bad, he’s been very bad, but when he’s been good, he’s been close to brilliant. He has had close to a full season split between the shuttle to Memphis, not really helping him develop any consistency. Has he killed a cat or stole someone’s shoes? He hasn’t had much to say, so I have no idea if he’s some horrible, hideous, mean man–but aren’t they afraid he might go all Dan Haren on them? I guess I can’t really answer who should be in the rotation until I know if LaRussa and Duncan come back. I know Duncan is supposed to be some sort of genius, but have you had a chance to check what Jorge Sosa is doing for the Mets? Sosa pitched poorly in 30 innings and gave up a lot of home runs here, but the Mets switched him to starting, and they set the rotation so he pithces in the bigger parks. And he’s 7-4 with an ERA in the 3.7’s. Duncan spends way too much time focusing on what a pitcher can’t do instead of looking at what they can do, and the organization misses out on a lot of talent that could work out with a little creativity. So, put me down for no friggin’ clue…..
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Derrick,
Ever since you pointed out once in April that Ichiro would be a free agent after the season, he was my number-one dream to have in St. Louis. We knew he’d approach Soriano contract numbers, but is much more deserving as a consistent offensive force and fielder. Now that Ichiro is off the market (and why did we ignore Juan Pierre last winter?), I’ve been looking for a new free agent to pine for. I know this was a starting rotation blog, but is there anybody on the horizon via trade or FA who could provide a spark on the bases?
Anyway, he’s not actually a free agent, but Dontrelle Willis is always on the trading block, it seems. It seems like this season is an anomaly, for some reason. He on a one-year contract for 6.5 million and in only his fifth ML season, I assume he could at worst seek arbitration (his first FA-eligible year would be after 2008?) in the offseason. And with a 5+ ERA this year, he shouldn’t be too expensive for at least next year. Anyway, would he fit in St. Louis, and what would the Marlins want? Big prospects and lots of them, presumably. But the Marlins must realize that he’s unlikely to stay past 2008, assuming I’ve figured correctly. This is his first season out of five with an ERA above 4.02, and he’s a proven potential ace. He brings a certain energy that might be refreshing. And he’s a career .217 hitter who had 3 HR and 10 RBIs last season, which are Adam Kennedy-type numbers. It never hurts to have a decent hitting pitcher to extend your bench.
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