Hope all is swell with you on this Thursday…
In Thursday’s column I discussed the “Civil War” aspect of the Chris Duncan trade, and how his presence with the Cardinals made so many people lose their minds, and why the change was needed.
Now, though, let’s examine the merits of the trade based on the swap of talent, Duncan for infielder Julio Lugo.
This deal could easily backfire on the Cardinals. If Duncan gets healthy and regains his strength — and that’s obviously an unknown factor in all of this — he can eventually be a weapon for the Boston Red Sox. Duncan is moving to a DH league. He doesn’t have to play left field. If pressed into service as a fielder, he can play his natural position, first base.
Even at his worst, Duncan had the ability to work a count and draw some walks. He was a good OBP guy, or at least a respectable OBP, even during bad times. Over the past two seasons, his OBP was .337. That’s not great — but it isn’t awful, either, considering that Duncan no longer posed much of a threat to pitchers from a power standpoint. Unlike Rick Ankiel, Duncan knew how to draw walks. In his first two seasons, 2006-2007, Duncan’s OBP was .358.
While Duncan’s health and strength will determine his fate, the change of workplace should help him. It truly is bizarre over the last couple of seasons, the way Duncan struggled at home. His father, Dave Duncan, has said that the criticism got to Chris. Did the stress of playing at home impact Duncan’s performance? During his first two seasons, no. Over the last two seasons, perhaps:
2008-2009, Home-Road Splits:
H: .202 / .304 ./ .309
A: .272 / .370 / .414
So maybe his unpopularity with the fan base got into Duncan’s head. But you know what? I think that’s fluff, a bad excuse. I don’t recall Duncan being booed (other than on an isolated basis) or treated harshly by the home crowd. He certainly wasn’t treated poorly in the newspaper. He did get ripped by callers to talk shows, and on Internet forums, but most athletes realize that you have to block that stuff out, and stay away from it. So why did it get to Duncan, if in fact it got to Duncan?
Unfortunately, I believe those close to Chris Duncan (family, friends, other Cardinals’ personnel) fed his paranoia by convincing him that Cardinals fans, and the media, had a vendetta against him, and that they wanted him out of town. In my opinion, Chris was done a regrettable disservice by those who should have been preaching a more upbeat message instead of putting negativity in his head. All players must live with their statistics, good and bad. If a guy is playing poorly, and his numbers are awful, he will accept it as business as usual when those stats are cited by media and fans. Facts are not personal attacks. But in Duncan’s case, whenever statistics were offered to show his loss of power, those close to Chris convinced him that he was being singled out and savaged on a personal basis. It’s sad.
Even when manager Tony La Russa tried to do what he thought was right — attacking fans to defend Duncan – the tactic backfired. La Russa’s rants only drew attention to the issue. And La Russa unintentionally put it in Duncan’s mind that he was despised and not getting a fair shake. That planted the seeds of doubt. And as I have found through the years, when you counterattack the attackers, it only encourages them to continue to stir things up even more. So while La Russa and Dave Duncan and others may have thought they were supporting Chris by ripping fans and media and being overly defensive of Chris, all they really did was make the situation worse.
And when La Russa insults the fans’ intelligence by insisting that Chris was a good player — which he was not — then you’re only agitating the crowd. It’s a shame that Cardinals’ baseball leadership made the fire bigger instead of reducing the flames. They may have believed they were doing the right thing, but their approach did not help Chris.
So by going to the Red Sox organization, Duncan has a chance to regroup and get his head clear of whatever negativity was eating at him. He won’t have baseball people feeding the paranoia. He can just play. And given his plate discipline, Duncan has a chance to find his power. He figures to benefit from having some new teachers, and their fresh perspective, to get his swing going. Again: the most important thing is his strength, and whether he can get that back. But the Red Sox had no use for Lugo, and had thrown him away, with the expectation of getting nothing for him. So this was a smart move by Boston GM Theo Epstein, giving up nothing to take a chance at restoring Duncan’s power. The Red Sox had nothing to lose here. For his first 562 ABs in the bigs, Duncan hit 43 homers. Over the last 582 ABs, he hit 12. Can Dunc regenerate that power? It certainly makes sense for the Red Sox to give him a look, give it a try. Getting out of St. Louis and the negativity from both enemies and “friends” will help Duncan.
As for the 33-year-old Lugo:
* The Cardinals need veteran depth at the middle infield, so he does fill an immediate need. Lugo is a shortstop by trade but has played 84 games at second and 16 at third. La Russa likes to move the utility guys around, so Lugo can count on taking turns at multiple positions.
*I don’t care about batting average; with players such as Lugo it’s all about OBP. Lugo’s been up and down with his onbase percentage, so it’s hard to make sense of it. He peaked in 2006 with Tampa Bay, with an OBP of .373. But since the Red Sox signed him to a ridiculously exorbitant contract before the 2007 season, Lugo’s OBP is a poor .319. But for 2009, the OBP was .352 which is fine. And against LHP, Lugo’s OBP this season is .415. That’s based on an awfully small sample size (36 ABs) but the Cardinals will take anything they can get when facing those tricky lefties. With Red Sox, Lugo’s OBP vs. the LHs was a decent .343. As some of you have pointed out (thank you) Lugo has a decent walk rate. So there’s hope.
* Lugo’s speed used to be a factor; he’s swiped 20 bases or more in five seasons during his career. And he had 33 steals as recently as 2007. But the steals dropped to 12 in 2008, and Lugo had only three steals this season. Injuries have slowed him down some. He had a quadricep injury last season, and underwent knee surgery early this season. How much life is left in Lugo’s legs? We’ll find out.
* Lugo’s defense has deteriorated, and the decline is dramatic. Let’s take a look at the variety of metrics that rate Lugo’s play at shortstop, and it’s not a pretty picture.
The John Dewan Plus-Minus system: Lugo is a minus 14 on ground balls, and a minus 15 overall. He’s minus 7 on balls to his right, and a minus 6 on balls to his left. Wow.
The Revised Zone Rating (RZR) at Hardball Times: Lugo’s RZR is .683, which would be the worst among MLB shortstops if Lugo had enough innings to qualify. He’s reached only 41 of 60 balls hit to his zone.
The Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) at Fangraphs.com: Lugo’s UZR is a minus 8.3, and that’s the worst rating for a SS who have played a minimum of 100 innings. His UZR/150 is minus 43.6. Ugh.
Given that Lugo had minor knee surgery in April, maybe he just needed time to get the flexibility and fluidity back. Perhaps he’ll have more jump in his step now. The Cardinals have to hope that his 2009 fielding metrics are outliers. Or a reflection on a a player struggling to bounce back from the creaking knee . I’m not sure. I haven’t seen Lugo play much this season. But the Cardinals have a ground ball staff, and the infielders have to get to the ball. I’m sure La Russa will take a look at Lugo at SS, to see how he moves. But TLR will be curious to see how Lugo handles 2B, and we may see him used there some. If Lugo handles 2B with reasonable skill, the manager could move Skip Schumaker to LF, but La Russa doesn’t seem inclined to do that, at least not to this point.
With Lugo, it’s about two things: OBP and range. That’s what we’ll be monitoring.
Both Duncan and Lugo should benefit from the chance to restart their careers.
Thanks for reading …
-Bernie
I liked Chris. I think the surgery though was getting to him after a hot start.
Like so many examples of past injured players, the Cards management, including the head coaching staff, decided to keep mum in order to prevent opposing pitchers from knowing the weaknesses of the batter.
Chris, though not a good defensive player, when healthy could reasonably approach the stats Adam Dunn achieves. I think this smoke screen again from the coaching staff prevented a fair shake to Chris within the Cards’ org.
It was clear on 101.1 he could not answer unquestionably that he was 100%, though, as a trooper, he’d like to believe he was.
Instead of sending him on the DL or to the minors and ignoring his pleas of “health” when all evidence showed otherwise, the Cards let him continue to play battered until LaRussa and his dad were proven that they had misjudged the severity of Chris’ condition.
Tony and Dave D. are great; but, they’re biggest weakness is not admitting to a weakness. And it has cost the Cardinals another fine ballplayer in Chris Duncan, who, when healthy, I’d take over Adam Dunn any day.
Spilled milk now.
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Pitching wins championships…but defense loses them.
Duncan didn’t belong here. Even if he hit .300 with 30 HR and 100 RBI’s, he couldn’t have played 1B. I hope he does do that, and everything works out for him. I think he will do great in the AL.
Not that Lugo is a defensive improvement…but at least the guy gets to play at his ‘regular’ positions.
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Chris was not producing, either due to injury or otherwise, and I agree with sending him to Memphis to work it out. Given enough time, I think he could have come back, maybe next year, or in September, to contribute. I am afraid we gained nothing with Lugo and do not like the trade. Bernie, do you know the details on why he was traded rather than just staying in Memphis?
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1. Yes, journalists who arise extra early after a short night of sleep to write a thorough blog (but doing it quickly) in an attempt to service readers will occasionally make an error, perhaps even two.
2. Kissing up to LaRussa? LOL. Must have skipped over some parts of what I wrote here. And in Thursday’s column.
3. Thanks for correctly pointing out that Lugo has a decent walk rate; I went back and added that.
Thanks for all of the comments.
-B
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I think the fans were more down on Tony for continuing to Chris in key situations when the game was on the line and having him not produce. Tony has a habit of doing just that, rememeber Izzy last year? I hope Chris heals and goes on to hit 35 next year but I fear we’ll soon hear his neck is out of wack again and needing surgury. Hopefully doesn’t it doesn’t end his career.
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The trade smacks of an inner conflict in the Cards system and a coaching staff/manager who is fueling it by tossing gas on it. We have seen indications of a power struggle between TLR and Moz. Is it strange a day or so after TLR goes public with his frustrations over Duncan that Chris is traded or is that just me thinking grassy knoll again?
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Bernie ..You must be kissing up to La Russa….can’t believe you still want to defend Duncan. What paranoia…any fan that watched half the games did want Duncan out of town.
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For several years people have commented that Duncan’s natural position, or the posiiton he played all his life, or the position he knows, is first base, as if he was an accomplished (or even acceptable) first baseman. As a Memphis Redbird season ticket holder, I was a witness to Duncan’s attempts to play first base. They were as comical as his flounderings in the outfield. In 2005, playing first base for the Redbirds, he made 19 errors in 128 games. That was the most of any of the Redbird players and could have been higher except for his complete lack of range and sympathetic official scorers.
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Experts have revised their opinions of Wallace’s defense up the way you compliment your wife’s mother’s eggplant casserole.
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I am wondering where people come up with this stuff – talking to you hinton. How exactly did you manage to determine Wallace’s attitude toward defense? From what I have read and seen, experts have revised their postion slightly up regarding wallace’s defensive potential at 3B.
Also talking to you rom – Stl fans did a whole lot more than just complain; it was downright ugly. People trying to use reason to defend hi were totally outnumbered and shot down by the haters. And I am not just using a cultural word there – the hatred for duncan was palpable on this site.
As for you ecleme, I wonder did you notice that the Sawx had designated Lugo for assignment and he would have been waived in a week or so? Then the cards could have signed him without giving anything to the Sawx. Whether the swap is fair regarding talent (and I think bernie is correct that it could sway the Sawx way if CD regains his pop) or not, it certainly was possible to get him without making a trade at all. That doesn’t define “great” to me.
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Does anyone really think Tony will give Lugo a fair chance here. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tony tells Lugo to go sit in the corner of the dugout. Tony may not even make eye contact with the guy for the first week.
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I like Duncan but his value being sent to AAA by the Sox shows the lack of talent the Cards have. We play Joe Thurston, he never sniffed a lengthy stay at Fenway. If Duncan is paranoid by the STL fans and media, wait until the folks in Beantown get him. They made a good SS in Edgar Renteria turn into a below average player up there.
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Even prior to the 2008 season, a lot of people (myself included) thought Duncan’s future might be in the AL. At his peak, Duncan was a natural 1B/DH who could hit for decent power and good OBP. In many cases that’s a more valuable commodity for an AL team than in the NL.
With Lugo, I wonder whether it might make sense to play him at 3B where range is less of a factor (from what I hear his arm is fine). Granted, he does have a career -10 UZR/150 playing third, but that’s based on a relatively small sample. And it’s not like the Cards are getting premium defense at 3B: Troy Glaus, Mark DeRosa, and Joe Thurston check in at -5, -7, and -3, respectively.
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I suspect most rational and reasonable Cardinal fans not having the last name of Duncan or LaRussa believed Duncan would end up in the AL eventually. Nobody ever thought of him as an outfielder, and I imagine he’s considered a marginal (at best) first baseman (seeing as he has played even that position very infrequently in his 4+ years as a major leaguer). One way or another, he was destined to become a DH in the AL.
To be honest, his average this year had been declining rather drastically since mid-May, right around the time both Ankiel and Duncan went on the DL. I leave it up to others to decide if one was directly related to the other. I think the argument can be made that if his name wasn’t “Duncan”, he would have been sent down to Memphis anywhere from 4-6 weeks ago. That’s not being mean or vicious, it’s just being objective.
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Boston does not need a DH, so Duncan might have a problem making it up to be the DH for the big club. He has had trouble staying healthy (I am talking a full complete season in Majors). The Cardinals did not lose anything and picked up another infielder which might be a has been. Just seems like both teams wanted to get rid of a player that was not producing for the team. As for as Duncan hitting, are you taking into consideration his defense. It is awful. Oh, he is not a outfielder, blah blah. Well, then he should not have been playing there then. As fans, we have the right to cheer, boo, critique, etc. That is part of the game, deal with it.
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What else needs to be said?
Hard to see a real backfire. Chris was exciting when he looked to be a real thumper in the past. His questionable defense and lingering health/performance problems did not seem to have much of a an answer. He’s still young though, so we’ll see. If Lugo has something great, if not, so be it. I do sort of dread the player to be named later.
I do believe most fans just wanted the best players to play. We were questioning TLR’s playing of Duncan, and Ankiel, and Thurston, and Wellemeyer. Not that we always had a good answer. I will fondly remember young Dunc’s prodigious power. I remember his pinch hit homer in the WS. I wish him the best, and was not trying to ride him out of town.
Wallace? With all the attention he has received, I wonder what he will end up doing. I certainly would like to see him in a Cards lineup, but if he goes, would rather get Hallady than Holliday. I do like an OF of Schu, Raz, Lud.
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Let me just say this about that: Good luck, Chris. Thanks for the hand in ‘06. I hope you heal and have a great career. I believe that you are a good man, like your father. Hope to see you back at Busch this Oct/Nov.
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So standards for proper grammer have sunk so low that even journalists will write things like “had essentially threw.” I find that a bit depressing. It should, of course, be “had essentially thrown.” No wonder I hear so many people saying things like “should have went” instead of “should have gone.”
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Bernie, Help me figure this out:
–We get Lugo when K Greene is going to come back; is this the end of Thurston?
–Glaus is coming back–who goes? Nick the Stick? DL Ankiel?
–Could K Greene be the player to be named later to Boston if he shows that he is OK?
–The Holliday (that’s Matt) for Wallace trade has now reached ESPN.com as almost done: Where does that leave the roster?
It looks like a real logjam.
By the way, speaking of ESPN.com, the Duncan-Lugo trade doesn’t even rate a mention, so this is all a local story.
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Bernie,
Great take on TLR and Dave’s deniability of Chris’s trouble’s at the plate and the whole conspiracy theory.
But you have forgotten the biggest reason for that. It is a father’s love for his son. Do you really think Dave would say that his son can’t perform like he used to at the plate and we have to trade him? No, he never would. Would you throw your son under the bus? Plus TLR is one of Dave’s best friends, he’s on board with the blame game also to help his friend with his son. I don’t know if you have kids or not but I can tell you, especially after raising a son to play in the show, you would not speak negatively about him… ever. I agree you could dance around it gingerly but you could never throw him under the bus, that’s just rediculous. I also agree that Dave should just shut up about it and stick to his job, which is turning worn out pitcher’s into salvagable starter’s..
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1) Keep Wallace and bring him up in Sept. allowing Schumacker, DeRosa, etc. occasional rest with parts moving around to cover 2B,3B,OF)
2) Trade for Dunn (but do not include Wallace in the deal) — and NOT Holliday (not anything special away from Coors Field).
3) Lineup: Schumaker (2B), DeRosa (3B), Pujols (1B), Dunn (LF), Ludwick (RF), Rasmus (CF), Molina (C), Ryan (SS), Pitcher
4) Dump Wellemeyer and bring up a kid for the occasional #5 start.
Hello Playoffs.
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Bring up the Wallace kid!
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Bernie,
Check Lugo’s walk rate. It’s fairly constant, and the difference between his low-OBP and high-OBP season is 6 walks in a prorated season (525 PA).
That indicates that when his OBP fluctuates, it’s mostly because he’s not hitting, not because he’s lost his plate discipline.
-Hastur
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It’s a good trade for both clubs. With the change of scenery, I hope Duncan regains his old form. From all accounts, he was a great teammate and didn’t complain. He might be one player that I actually root for who doesn’t play for the Cards.
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This episode is a great example of why many / most companies do not allow nepotism in their organizations.
If I was Dave and Chris was my kid, I’d be protective as hell. I’d be mad as hell at the people who are saying bad things about him and defend him to the end. Doesn’t matter whether the things being said are true or not. Just don’t want to see the kid hurt or demoted or jsut unhappy.
Put’s everybody in a bad spot. the kid who tries hard but can’t perform to expectations. the father who wants nothing but the bet but has an interest in helping the kid. And the business manager who is loyal to his immediate employee who has performed well for years.
Sux
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Look, I’m a TLR fan. The only way I’m getting in to the HOF is if I buy a ticket. But I never understood why TLR kept running him out there. It was obvious to everyone, even him, that CD was struggling. I did not understand why CD wasn’t just put on the shelf for awhile to heal and get his skills back. Not all the fans are rabid, mouth foaming idiots. Some of us were pulling for Chris to do what we knew he was capable of. I’m happy for Chris. He has a tremendous opportunity to re-start with a club that (lately anyway) is an annual contender. Mo did the proper, merciful thing.
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Not a great move by Mo but i believe TLR and daddy Dave forced the issue. even with that, Chris should have spent the last month in AAA getting himself together. Then he would have had more trade value when this time eventually came.
As is, we got a bag of used balls for the guy. There may be some bounce in the bag once in a while but for the most part he won’t help us.
LaRussa’s fault all the way.
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Just saw this article on ESPN. I hope this doesn’t happen. http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=4350887
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Bernie, in your view, is this the beginning of the end of the TLR-Duncan show in St. Louis? Big Dunc’s comments certainly would indicate he believes someone in the organization (Mo?) wanted little Dunc out, and TLR’s passionate defense of Chris yesterday would also intimate that he was taken by surprise by this move.
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Bernie— Care to share your thoughts on who your referring to when you said, “Unfortunately, I believe those close to Chris Duncan fed his paranoia by convincing him that Cardinals fans, and the media, had a vendetta against him, and that they wanted him out of town”.?????
I wish Chris the best and see no downside for the Cardinals if he does well in Boston.. This “may ” have all been avoided if LaGenius had sent Chris down earlier and or put him on the D/L…
Regarding Lugo– This will be Tony’s chance to bench Ryan under the pretext of seeing what Lugo has at shortstop.. So much for Tony’s contention that he’s “putting the best players on the field everyday that give the team a chance to win” B.S….
I think anyone who’s a Cardinal fan and not brain dead this year (Duncan, Ankeil, Thurston, Wellemeyer), know horse manure when they see it and/or hear it…
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It’s over. He’s gone, finally. Let’s move on. I don’t care what he does for them.
I don’t expect to get anything out of Lugo, K. Greene, Glaus, Ankiel, or Thurston.
We have talented young players on the rise. Let’s utilize them here in STL. What have we got to lose? We’re not going to win with trying to fill our holes with over the hill, injured, and washed up or 4A players. Promote the young talent. If Wallace can’t play 3B, then play him in LF. We have to come up with a better 2B than Skip. He hits OK for a 2B, but his defense just isn’t good enough. Championship teams usually have excellent up the middle defense. We’re a 2B away from having excellent up the middle defense. Wallace in LF could be the bat we need to add. Descalso at 2B. Skip off the bench.
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We all hope Lugo’s got something left, I’d have a beer with Dunc but I wouldn’t have been playing him. Too bad Lugo’s first game won’t be at home, we always give our new players a good welcome, especially one with potential of putting up good numbers, but on the road it gives him a change to bond with teammates.
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Red Sox have the overweight, out of shape David Ortiz as their DH. He is on his last legs so this trade is a very good one for Red Sox. Chris is nothing but upside if he responds to better teaching. I was always taught that one should work hard, but that hard work alone wouldn’t make you successful. Prepare, work hard, work SMART! Chris did two of three. Perhaps he can do all three for the Red Sox. The Red Sox fans are actually pretty tough; just ask Renteria. I wish Chris the best. Bernie, you are right on on this. I am joining the bandwagon of time for the LaRussa show to move on out of town. It appears we have two Red Sox cast off infielders taking up utility roles on MLB roster over Cardinals farm hands trained the Cardinal Way. Why?
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The fact is Dunc wasn’t hitting. And (unlike Lud and Ank), he couldn’t make up for it with his glove.
I think it’s great getting Lugo. Wow, what a great trade. We give up a guy (Dunc) who we really don’t have room for. And replace him with a really good veteran. This will strengthen the cards up the middle.
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Respectfully, I don’t think it will backfire on the Cardinals if Duncan becomes an effective DH. That wouldn’t prove anything with regard to Duncan’s ability to play a position for the Cardinals, in the NL.
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“he can be a weapon for the Boston Red Sox. Duncan is moving to a DH league.” Doesn’t Boston already have somebody playing DH?
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The trade seems pretty much even to me. We get Lugo and since Boston is picking up all of most of the 13 mil that he is owed it works out for us. Duncan needs a change and maybe that will be just what he needs to find his swing. Or he has never fully recovered form his sports hernia and will never be the power hitter like when he began his career.
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Great… We should have just gave Duncan to Boston for a play to be named later.
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I live in MA. and have seen Lugo for the past 2 1/2 years. He is exactly what the Cards don’t need. He does have no range (and it’s not his knee) and he has hands like stone. In addition he has an aversion to turning the double play; if someone is sliding at him he bails.
Hopefully he can change some of this but I haven’t seen much change in 2+ years.
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I agree Bernie. The only thing STL fans did was complain that Duncan wasn’t playing well. There was no vendeta. He was not the whipping boy as Gordo put it. He wasn’t playing well, and yet he was playing often. These two things, along with the fact that he’s Dave Duncan’s son who is TLR’s best friend, made this whole thing suspicious. I think fans were more upset with TLR and elder Duncan than with Chris. He wasn’t some big money player like Tino or something that ended up stinking and whining about it. He just wasn’t good. TLR needs to take a good hard look at himself and his relationship with Dave Duncan before calling out the fans. I only fear that this may be the end of the TLR era. Thoughts?
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I think the trade had to happen – but I am beginning to worry about the Cards’ committment to defense. There’s Lugo with his obvious troubles: let’s hope he can recoup while here. There’s Wallace lurking in the minors — his attitude towards defense reminds me of Don Coryell’s — there’s Glaus (assuming he ever gets well) in left field, rolling the ball in — and people are talking up Adam Dunn, who thinks what you do with a line drive is let it stop rolling and go pick it up (apologies to Uecker on catching knuckle-balls).
I would hate to see us metamorphose into something like the 1950s Giants. But I may just be getting flustered.
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Good job on the closer look at the trade. To me it still looks like a good trade for both teams. I would say that Dave Duncan was the main one “close to Chris” that was feeding him the vendetta stuff. Just my opinion anyway.
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